Ken Paxton’s Texas Victory Raises Concerns About GOP Electability and Trump’s Influence on Senate Races

Last week, voters in Texas in a runoff decided to dump incumbent John Cornyn. And they decided that they are going they nominated Ken Paxton. Now, we have laid out to you. So the way Texas and almost you know this. But the way Texas election process works, they have a primary. Anybody can run. They can get on the ballot. And if no one gets to 50% plus one of the votes, they have what's called a runoff, where the top two vote getters then run against each other in May. And whoever wins that election then is the nominee. And Cornyn and Paxton, neither one of them got to 50% of the vote. And so they had a runoff. And Paxton won overwhelmingly. He was endorsed by Donald Trump. Now Paxton is a complete dumpster fire. He's a piece of crap. And everything from, he was under indictment for allegedly defrauding investors. That ultimately culminated with him paying back $300,000 in restitution. And then he had to do 100 hours of community service. He was impeached by his own party allegations related to bribery. The guy's bad news. And for some reason. Look, I'm not saying Cornyn's great. I'm not saying everybody should have thrown their support behind Cornyn. But Paxton is a walking, talking scandal. And for some reason, the Republicans got behind him. And we see this more and more now where we are saying personal character, especially personal character while you're in office, doesn't matter.

Ken Paxton Defeats John Cornyn and Immediately Faces Questions About General Election Strength

Now, I'm not saying I'm a choirboy, and I'm not saying everybody in office should be a choirboy, but your behavior in office matters big time. And by the way, look, if you want to run for U.S. Senate on the Democrat or the Republican side, fair game. Right? It's all fair game. You're all big boys and it's blood sport. You know my theory on that, right? So like the guy Platner running in Maine who all this stuff is coming out about him, personal behavior, personal issues. Look, if you want to be a U.S. senator, you should be ready for it. I go back and forth on whether I care about personal things you did before you were a candidate for office. Now, if you're a candidate for office and you did it, or you're the office holder and you did it, okay? No, no, anything there. But if it's stuff you did and it's personal, like it didn't harm anybody. Like in the case of Platner, he's married now. He had numerous indiscretions with women who were not his wife. And allegedly the indiscretions were continuing now into the campaign itself. I don't really care what you did before you were running for public office, but I do care what you're doing while you're in public office or you're running for public office. I think that's fair game. If you have so little self control, you can't stop the bad behavior while you're a candidate. You can't go stop the bad behavior while you're in office. I don't think I really care if it's personal and it's not. He wasn't stealing money. He wasn't harming people. If the guys. That's between him and his wife. But once you're a candidate, I think I care about that. I think I care, I think I care. Now, if you're doing things that are illegal or whatever before you're a candidate, I care about that. If you got a my case file or you should have had a my case file, I care about that. But the point was, the point is that throughout this runoff, people like me were like, if you nominate Paxton, you're going to potentially give this race to the Democrats because Paxton is so egregious. Paxton's behavior is so egregious, and he's so unremorseful, unrepentant about any of it. He's like Diego Morales on steroids. I mean, Diego Morales for all the crap he's pulled. I'm not aware that he's ever been indicted for anything. Certainly not aware of that. I'm not aware Diego Morales was ever impeached. He wasn't. And yet this is the guy the Republicans put forward in a purple state that certainly leans Republican. But Democrats have won in the past. They can win again.

Legal Troubles and Ethics Allegations Continue to Follow Texas Senate Nominee

And the Democrats, this Talarico who he's running against is the new golden boy. This is going to be one fawning, glowing media piece after another about him. Why would you do that? But the Republicans decided they wanted to do it. And the first polling has come out on this race in Texas, in which 47% of people polled, by the way, this was Texas public opinion research, 47% of likely voters, by the way, which is key. That's big. You put way more stock in likely general election voters then just registered voters. 47% of likely general election voters backed Talarico, compared to 44% for Paxton. Oh, look, it's the first poll after the primary. It's five months before the election. So I'm not saying it's an end all be all. I'm not saying it's a doomsday scenario. I'm saying though at least the initial reaction of voters. And there's some data in this poll that comes back to what I was talking about last week that backs it up. It's not good. You certainly don't want to start from behind. Now again, Texas, probably a state that may deliver a little more Republican than polling. Who knows if they actually are in fear of losing, if people get motivated to go vote. Who knows what sort of campaign this Talarico is going to run, what dirt other dirt exists on Paxton. But it's not a good place to begin from, and it's self-inflicted. Nearly a third of respondents who voted for Cornyn in the runoff indicated in the poll that they will support the Democrat nominee in November. Only 44% said they would vote for Paxton, 23% were undecided. Now, does that mean that all of those people who said they're going to vote for Paxton, some won't get cold feet at the end? No. Certainly. You know, he could pull some of those people back who said they're voting for him. Paxton could pull some of the people back that said they're voting for Talarico, the 23%. Will those people stay home? Will those people get the cold feet right and vote for the red no matter what? But that's not good, guys. A third of the Republican third of these people voted for Cornyn. They're not sold on Paxton, and that doesn't even incorporate the people because Cornyn won the actual primary day. He got smoked in the runoff. He won the actual primary. A lot of those people stayed home. Where are they at? Don't know.

Early Polling Shows Republican Voters Remain Divided After Bitter Primary Fight

And it comes back to a conversation that I've been trying to have for a long time now, which is Trump. Trump has gone out of his way to be as big an ass as he possibly can to a lot of these incumbents he's defeating, which I'm not talking about being against the record. I'm not talking about running against the, you know, the way they've governed, all well and good, but Trump. Trump has dug in so much and so deep on the name calling, on the belittling, on the insults, that you've made it. You've given these candidates, these incumbents and their supporters safe harbor to not align back up with you. And I know I talked about this a little bit last week, but the best example I can give you of that is Richard Mourdock. It can and does happen, guys. Richard Mourdock lost the U.S. Senate race in Indiana in 2012. It's how you got Joe Donnelly. He lost it. Donnelly didn't win it. Mourdock lost it. And it wasn't just the comments that he made about abortion that did him in. Mourdock spent months going on television and refusing to try to bring Lugar voters, Richard Lugar, the longtime senator who he beat in a primary, back into his camp. And it was all style. It wasn't his views that needed to be changed. You got to moderate your style a little bit to make sure your coalition is united. And so when Mourdock made that horrible mistake and made those horrible comments about abortion, the Lugar voter was looking for a reason to leave. Okay. I'm done. A lot of them were gonna leave anyway. Mourdock wasn't way ahead. He should have been. He wasn't way ahead before that because he didn't coalition build. And I'm not talking about, again, about changing your view on issues. I'm not talking about caving. I'm not talking about principles. I'm talking about how do you build your base to be as strong as it possibly can? How do we make sure your core coalition is as strong as it possibly can be? And Trump with the name calling, with the belittling, he's just needlessly pissing people off. Look, those people are going to vote for Trump, tells him to, no matter what. No matter what the people are going to do, what Trump tells him, it's sport for him. And that's okay. In a primary, it's probably fun. It's probably fun. Now. It's not so much fun, is it? Now you need the Cornyn voter to come back into the fold. How do you get that person? They don't have an answer for that right now. That's what's going to decide elections in places like Texas. Can the Republican establishment turn out? Can the Republican Party turn out the Cornyn voters who said they will now back Talarico? More than half started the criminal charges against Paxton and corruption concerns. It's a big deal. And Trump simply name calling Cornyn or telling people to vote for Paxton ain't going to make it not a big deal when people go to vote in the fall. The Republican Party, there are just not enough only Trump voters. It's about a third. It's about a third of the electorate. They're not enough. Not even close. You've got to get all sorts of traditional Republicans and independents in swing states, which Texas kind of is. I mean, it's a Republican leaning state, but it will vote Democrat if you force it into it. You have to give people a reason to be for you and pissing them off is not it. It's part of why I got out of politics. I was sick of having to be nice to people I didn't like. I was sick of not being able to say exactly what I thought about people. And you can't as an elected person, you have to try to coalition build. It doesn't mean you compromise your principles. It doesn't mean you compromise your values. It doesn't mean you give in on policies, but your style matters. Style matters. It's one of the things that keeps me from ever running again so far. I don't want to have to be nice to people I don't like. I don't want to have to suck up to people that I can't stand. I don't have to do any of that. I want to just come in here and say what I want and go home.

Richard Mourdock Example Highlights Challenges of Reuniting a Fractured Political Coalition

The Republicans have a big problem across this country because they're not united as a party. They're not united together. And in these swing states. Look. Susan Collins, I don't like Susan Collins, Republican from Maine. She's the incumbent. She's been there since the earth was young. I don't like Lisa Murkowski, Republican from Alaska. There's several of these people I don't like. I also accept the reality, though. They're the only Republican that can win. Now, I'm not invested in the Republicans winning, so I don't care. I was never really invested in the Republicans winning. I voted for Mourdock. I didn't care. I looked at Donnelly and Lugar as being the same guy. I wish Mourdock had done it differently because Mourdock would have been a great senator. That's the thing. Mourdock was a genius. He was a weirdo, but he was a genius. Mourdock's knowledge of issues, Mourdock's conservative bona fides. He would have been great in the U.S. Senate. But he just wasn't willing to do the things necessary in order to win. And it went way beyond his comments on abortion. So like, I don't look at Maine or Alaska and be like, oh, damn, that'd be a shame if the Republicans didn't keep that seat. I'm freed from that now. I don't care. But as a Republican, if I were a Republican who cared, I'm a Republican who believes the Republicans need to lose a few elections. But if I were a Republican who cared about only the Republican winning, I would be like, I don't care how conservative I am. Conservative can't win in Maine. You got to go with her. That's your option. It's votes for most of your judges. Just look at it that way. I guess that's not me, I don't care, I'm not in that position. People like Murkowski are the ones who can win in Alaska. Alaska will vote for Democrats. It just amazes me that the Republicans just seem dead set on doing everything they can to try to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Texas should have been a no brainer. Just check that one off the list. Now. Not only is it in play, you're losing. Doesn't mean you're going to lose, but it means you're in trouble.