CBS Poll Shows Trump Economic Support Falling as Republicans Face Growing Midterm Warning Signs

So I want to spend some time today talking about Thomas Massie, about his re-election, about the challenger that Trump has put forward, about the campaign that Trump is running against Massie, about how Trump is now going after anyone who supports Massie, even some of his most loyal, passionate supporters. And it got me thinking, what is the Republican Party becoming? What is going on here when any person who disagrees with the president becomes public enemy number one, even if that person, based on their voting record, is everything the Republican Party on paper claims to be about. So we’ll get into that. But first I wanted to talk about, so CBS had a fascinating poll that came out over the weekend about how people were feeling about the economy. And, you know, it’s interesting, right? Like, and you see this sometimes in relationships, like you guys ever have a friend who was involved with someone who was a complete train wreck? You guys ever have that where you have a friend who they’re dating someone, your best friend, your guy friend, your girlfriend, and they’re engaged in a relationship with someone where there’s all sorts of red flags, right? You’re seeing all sorts of things and you as an unemotional observer are like, oh, this doesn’t look good at all. Oh, this thing over here is happening, and this thing over here is happening.

New CBS Poll Shows Americans Growing More Pessimistic About Trump’s Economic Policies

And like some of your friends who are friends with this person, you’re all seeing the same red flags and you keep trying to tell this person like, hey, really not good. Not good for your health, not good for your future, not good for your mental stability, not good for your financial stability. Like there’s all of these things that are going on and you and your buddies keep going, hey, as an unemotional, unattached observer who just cares about you as my friend, you probably need to get out of that relationship really quick because it’s not going to go well. And yet that person keeps going, no, no, I can’t leave Sally or I can’t leave Jimmy. Well why not? Because I love her, I love him, I’m too emotionally invested at this point to see the forest from the trees. I can’t possibly fathom a world without this person where all of these red flags. And so they keep doubling, tripling, quadrupling down on this really toxic red flag boyfriend, girlfriend, whatever. I kind of feel like that’s where we’re at as it relates to what’s going on in our country right now, and the refusal to say, hey, we got to start making some changes really quick. We all may love Trump, we all may love what he has espoused on campaign trails to be about, but poll after poll shows, when we size up what’s going on in this country with the general election, it’s not going to go well. Like you can love this person as much as you want, more than any person could possibly fathom. It doesn’t mean everybody else will. It doesn’t mean the red flags, like the emotional, the so many people are so emotionally connected to Trump that they’re not seeing the red flags, that they’re not leaning in. They’re incapable of being able to lean in and see what everybody else is seeing, and they just keep going, no, no, no, you’re wrong. Yeah, but all your friends are seeing this. No, you’re all wrong. I’m the one who’s right.

Inflation, Gas Prices, and Financial Stress Continue Hurting Republican Approval Ratings

Listen to what this CBS poll said. And the polling here matches other polling, including polling done by Republican based pollsters. These are some of the most important parts of this poll because, again, I think the conversation now is what is the Republican Party? I think we’re in a moment where what we decide to do going forward is going to decide the next generation of the Republican Party. And I say this as someone who wants the president to succeed. I want the president to do well. I want the president to be able to make our country a better place, put policies out that make our country a better place. But here’s the reality on the ground right now. And again, the data in this CBS poll, it matches other polls. It’s like they’re all in the same ballpark. 57% of respondents said they believed that Trump’s policies are making them financially worse off. That is, a clear majority of Americans say the policies of the Trump administration are making them worse off. That’s also a whole lot of people who voted for Trump. Like that’s so far on the other side, you can’t say, well, it’s a liberal pollster. That’s a clear majority of Americans. 76% of respondents said they felt concerned about the economy, 67% described themselves as feeling stressed, 77% said their income is not keeping up with inflation. Of those data points, and we’ll get into more here in just a second, I’m not reading those to you saying, wow, I really think the Democrats are the answer. I’m not giving you that information going, well, we got to make a hard pivot left. This is what’s fascinating to me about how people try to come at me. Now. The great thing about me is it’s never mattered to me how people come at me. My job is to give you information. My job is to tell you what’s going on. And you know, when you come here, you’re going to get an independent viewpoint of that. A person who, while a Republican, is not remotely hesitant to call out the Republicans. You deserve the truth. I tell you these things saying the Republican Party needs to change. I don’t say these things going, well, everyone must go Democrat here. I tell you these things as here’s what needs to be done. However, as it relates to voting, the average person ain’t nearly as into it as I am or as you are. We’ve been saying this for years. The average person is not nearly as into it as the people who consume podcasting, talk radio, the political orbit, the average. And that’s why we see continual swaying of control in our government. People don’t think it through the way we do. They just go, okay, I tried this person, that didn’t work. All right, I’ll go back to these guys. Oh, okay. That didn’t work. Well, we’ll go back over here. The average person has no real core political belief system. They don’t have a core ideology. The actual people with core ideologies on both sides of the aisle represent a very small group of the population. People don’t get emotionally attached to politicians. The average person, the average voter, the average human being that’s going to show up this fall, they simply make often a late breaking choice going, I don’t think the country’s headed in the right direction. It’s time to do something else. I don’t feel like my life is better. It’s time to make another choice. And when you have a president, when the issue is the economy that he campaigned and won on, and you’ve got 57% of the people saying that his policies are making them financially worse off, once you break free of the Republican primary, there’s no juice there. Trump is not going to be able to deliver in swing districts and House and Senate races, because the average voter is not happy. Presidents can deliver. Presidents can close. Presidents can leverage when they are popular. Why did Democrats lose over and over and over and over again under Obama? Under Obama, the Democrats lost something like a thousand seats between state House, state Senate, governor’s office and Congress and Senate seats. Like the eight years Obama was president, it was a disaster for everyone not named Obama, and it would have been a disaster for Obama, I think, in his re-election, if the Republicans had picked a better candidate other than a very unlikable, totally out of touch, seen as totally aloof Mitt Romney, because Obama’s policies were not helping people. He did not deliver on the things he promised. And so history tells us Trump is way more unpopular than he was in 2018. And what happened in 2018? There were some red states who had Senate elections, in which the state completed its cycle of morphing into an all red state. Indiana was one of them. Indiana, Missouri, these states that had sort of been the last vestige of, hey, we’re Republicans, but we also elect Democrats. Like that cycle completed and the Senate held Republican. In fact, they added a couple of seats. But the House, a total bloodbath, a total disaster. And that’s where we’re likely headed this fall if things don’t change. The House of Representatives, no matter what redistricting takes place. And we’ll get into what happened in Virginia, which shame on the Democrats there. Those people are pathetic. And the fact that they’re crying about brazenly breaking the law in a court saying you can’t do that is ridiculous. Seventy-seven percent of people said their income is not keeping up with inflation. 59% described gas prices as a financial hardship. Look, that’s going to be all on Trump if he doesn’t get something figured out, because, yes, gas was very high under Biden for a period of time, and people punished Biden for that in the 2022 midterms. Republicans took the House of Representatives. Then it returned to a more normal level. You know that in the state of Indiana, you know, 2, 2, $3 range, right? Gas was 268 in February of this year, which had largely stayed under Trump. And now it’s, I mean, if you take away the gas tax suspension here in Indiana, it’s $2 a gallon more. The actual price of gas, all taxes being equal, is $2 higher. Even with the gas tax suspension, you still see gas somewhere between 3.90, $4 a gallon. By a rate of 43 to 24, Americans say Iran has not been a strategically successful endeavor. So 43% say not successful, 24%. That’s 20 points underwater. By a tally of 54 to 16%, people say it has not been economically successful. That’s over 38% in the negative, people saying Iran has not been economically successful and the economy is everything right now. Sixty-five percent say Trump’s policies have made the economy worse in the short run, compared to 13% who say better. 50% say Trump’s economic policies have made things worse in the long run, to 29% who said better. That’s an interesting statistic, because some of the arguments with Trump has been, hey, a little short term pain for some long term gain. The outlook of Americans right now is not optimistic. It’s not. That argument has not been sold to the American public. Hey, we got to do these tariffs. Hey, we got to do this Iran war. Hey, we got to do this big, beautiful bill that adds to the nation’s debt, trillions of dollars. All of these things Trump has done, he has not been able to sell a rosy long term outlook of the economy and certainly not a short term. President Trump’s handling of inflation receives just 27% approval. And here’s what’s very interesting about this survey, same survey, March of 2025, he had a 45% approval rating in the March of 25 approval survey. That’s down 18 points over, what, a year and two months. Guys, Trump has such a loyal following amongst the hardcore Republican voter. And we’re going to get into some data on Politico, had a fascinating survey about. Well, let’s get to it now, because it’ll lead up to what I’m going to talk about with Thomas Massie in the next segment. And this all ties together, guys.

Trump’s Strong Republican Primary Influence No Longer Matches General Election Sentiment

Politico had a survey that came out which took Democrat Harris voters and Trump voters, and they said, what endorsements is most likely to move those voters? Like if this group or this affiliated group endorses a candidate, what moves? I thought this was super interesting. What moves Harris voters and what moves Trump voters. And number one, there were some that didn’t surprise me. There were some that were like, that’s very interesting. Number one amongst Trump voters was Trump’s endorsement of any candidate on average. On average. Trump hasn’t won every place he’s endorsed, but on average, the Trump endorsement a candidate by 22%, 22 percentage points in a Republican primary. If a candidate getting the Trump endorsement wins by about 22%, it elevates them up 22%. We saw this in Louisiana over the weekend. Bill Cassidy, longtime senator who had voted to impeach Trump. And look, this guy should have been. Any senator who voted to impeach Trump over January 6th deserves defeat. And most of them realize they were going down and they got out. It was names like Richard Burr in North Carolina. It was names like Mitt Romney in Utah. It was the Toomey in Pennsylvania, Ben Sasse in Nebraska. There are two left, Murkowski and Collins. Collins is up for re-election this year. She’s probably going to lose in Maine in the general election. But mostly senators got out. Cassidy was one of the few who stood for re-election. Any person who played just ridiculous politics, and that’s what voting to impeach Trump was, was a political game. There was nothing he did on January 6th that warranted any sort of, you know, prosecution in the Senate. Now, look, everybody who, these people who invaded the Capitol, these people who did damage on January 6th, they should have. And they were prosecuted to the full extent of the law. Now, the people who were invited into the Capitol, like there’s people going, come on in, and went in. That was ridiculous. Those people should not have been charged. And they’re, you know, peacefully walking around if security’s like, come on in. I don’t think so. The people who did damage, the people who took stuff, those people should have been prosecuted. And they were. But there was nothing Donald Trump did that warranted that. But Cassidy, and if you look at the plus 22, right. Cassidy went down with less than, he got basically right at 25% of the vote. A fourth of the voters. That is an incredibly low number for a senator, a sitting senator. Now, Louisiana is different. It has a runoff. It’s one of the ones where if you don’t get to 50%, then there’s a runoff. There were three prominent Republicans running, including Cassidy. The other two candidates for Senate got more than Cassidy. So Cassidy’s out. Two other people will go to a runoff now. But if you look at, so I said the numbers plus 22. Think about how close this is. Cassidy got basically 25% of the vote. The Trump endorsed candidate, 45% of the vote. So basically that 22, I mean, it’s close enough, right? It is almost identical to what the Politico survey showed. If you look at in Indiana, the unpopular senators who went down, the margins by which they went down. I’m talking about Holdman. I’m talking about Buck. I’m talking about Greg Walker. People like that. Now, again, there are the two, it looks like, pending this recount that are going to survive. Which brings me back to it wasn’t about redistricting. It was about Trump and the money and the resources he brought in. Trump, according to this Politico survey, Trump endorsement is the gold standard. That is what you want. And next segment, we’re going to talk about Massie’s re-election and the danger of that, what it’s turning the Republican Party into. But that was number one. And we’ll talk about some of the others later on in the show. But the Trump endorsement was the number one benefactor, benefit to any candidate running on the Republican side.

Republicans Increasingly Fear Major House and Senate Losses in Upcoming Midterm Elections

But then you try to square that up. So you have all these candidates who will win based on Trump’s endorsement or because of or in part to Trump’s endorsement, but to the voting public, the general public, the people outside of the Republican primary, which is such a small fraction of the overall populace, Trump is not doing well. Trump’s policies are not popular. And the one that stands out to me, and it was buried in the survey, but I come back to it because the whole argument with Trump has been, hey tariffs, yeah, your cost of living is going to go up a little bit. But boy, wait till how this plays out in the long run though. Iran, yeah. Okay. The gas prices went up a little bit. But long term, man, it’s going to be great for America. We’ve talked about it a lot on this show. The data point that matters most to me that I think is most interesting is 50% of those people in that CBS survey say Trump’s policies have made the economy worse in the long run. His signature singular argument by Trump and his supporters is almost 2 to 1. 29% believe long term it will make it better. That’s the base. That’s the Trump base that are winning Republican primaries. Guys, if this doesn’t improve, if these data points don’t improve, it is going to be very bad for the Republicans this fall. Even with the redistricting, it’s going to be very bad for the Republicans. Now, is it going to be, you know, a 60 vote thing like Obama? Probably not. Gerrymandering has changed so much on both sides over the past 15 years that that probably isn’t going to happen anymore. But there’s a very real shot. Republicans could end up losing the House of Representatives. Wouldn’t surprise me at all. Even with the redistricting wins, the Republicans have scored. And there’s a very real chance that the Republicans could lose the Senate. That was thought. It was unimaginable this time last year that Republicans could lose the Senate. Like it was like, hey, the House will be interesting because the party in power usually does bad in the midterms, the House. But man, the Republicans, because there’s Republican states that Trump won, I say Republican states, states Trump won that are back on the ballot this year. Hey, if Trump does well, the Republicans could end up with 56, 57 votes in the Senate. They’re talking now. I mean, you look at Ohio. Sherrod Brown making a comeback. There very was a very popular senator for years on the Democrat side. He could easily win. A lot of polling right now shows him doing very well. Now again, it’s forever till the election. But all this survey that I just talked about is all going to tie into what we’re going to talk about next, which is tomorrow is going to tell us a lot about the Republican Party. And I want to talk about a phone call that I got yesterday from a very prominent Republican that really ties into what’s going on now with the party. What is the Republican Party? What does it even mean anymore? What does it represent? What are they trying to accomplish? What is it all about? I think those are very fair questions. And some of them, it may make, some of it may get answered. Tomorrow may spark even more questions.